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Tuesday, June 21, 2011

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SENSEX-SUPER CYCLE WAVE STRUCTURE TARGET 35000-50000

BLUE NUMBER

Blue numbers are normal degree wave structure which was started from 2003 at level of 2904 and end at 21206

Wave 1 2904 to 6249

Wave 2 6249 to 4228

Wave 3 4228 to 12671

Wave 4 12671 to 8799

Wave 5 8799 to 21206

A 21206 to 8047

B 8047 to 21108

C 21108 to 1672/14617/13062(on going structure)

RED LABELS

Red labels are super cycle degree wave structure which is started from 2003 at levels of 2904

Wave 1 2904 to 21206

Wave 2 21206 to 8047

Wave 3 8047 to 32516(projected)

Wave 4 32516 to 21206(projected)

Wave 5 21206 to 50818(projected)

GREEN LABELS

Green labels are head and shoulders which is projected with wave structure

Left hand is placed at 8799 which is the low of the normal cycle degree wave 4

Head is placed at 8047 which is low of A of a-b-c correction or low of super cycle degree wave 2

Right hand will be placed on either this levels 16172-14617-13062 which is C of a-b-c correction and part of super cycle degree wave 2

MY CONCLUSION AND NOTES

Use correction up to 16172-14617-13062 to buy for long term investments in quality business.

When correction of C of a-b-c gets over and market cross all time high of 21206 it will give two side breakouts

One is from super cycle degree wave 3

Second is head and shoulders worth 13159 points

In head and shoulder pattern target will be 34365 and in wave structure 32516

Disclaimer : While due care has been taken in preparing the above Analysis, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on it.

NISHESH JANI www.janibrothers.com +91 9227067662

8 year cycle and dow theory

Many times you have heard about long term story of Indian economy and growth and your broker, financial planner or tax advisor says invest for long term in Indian stock market but market moves in un realistic manner and discount everything vary early and responds in such a manner that small or retail investor always trap like in 1992 bubble of harshad Mehta then in 2000 ketan parekh and IT bubble and then in 2008 US sub prime problem.

As a experience investor we have try to learn from long term chart of the main index and try to give view.

Some observations are as below

(1) sensex has 8 year cycle

At every 8 years sensex make top and then falls.

Like from 1984 to 1992
1992 to 2000
2000 to 2008

(2) market correct at least 60% from the 8 year cycle top

1992 crash 4546 to 1980=56% down from top
2000 crash 6150 to 2594=57% down from top
2008 crash 21206 to 7697=63% down from top

(3) From 1984 to 2008 of 24 year market moves in higher top-higher bottom formation.

1992 top was 4546 and correct to 1980

2000 top was higher then of 1992 which was 6150 and correct up to 2594 which was higher bottom then of 1992 correction of 1980

2008 top was higher of 2000 which was 21206 and correct up to 7697 which was higher bottom then of 2000 correction of 2594

Now see in every 8 year cycle market turns down with at leas 60% down from high and do not break last higher bottom and creates higher top.

Now if any one who believe in Indian growth story then on Dow Theory and cycle theory consider two things

(1) Indian market will hit major top in

2015/2016
2024/2025

(2) market will correct at least 60% from their top

In technical analysis stop loss is must whether you are trader or long term investor.

In Dow Theory bull market higher bottom becomes your stop loss

Let me explain how

If you have invested from 1984 then market correct from 4546 to 1980

Then in 2000 market correct from 6150 to 2594

At this level those who have invested must keep stop loss of last higher bottom which was at that time 1980 and it was not broken and those who remain invested has get good return.

Then in 2008 market correct from 21206 to 7697
At this level those who have invested must keep stop loss of last higher bottom which was at that time 2594 and it was not broken and those who remain invested has get good return

Now if any one who wants to play India growth story then they needs to keep stop loss of 7697 which is last higher bottom

Now one thing is clear before next bubble in 2015/2016 comes, every investor who are invested in market through mutual funds,insurance plan or directly for vary vary long time invest your money with stop loss of 7697 if this break then Indian market will enter in to vary long term bear phase.

I will update more analysis based on cycle theory and Dow theory as and when needed.

Trading Rules

Never risk more than 10% of your trading capital in a single trade.
Always use stop loss orders.( Here you should know your loss you can give in a situation where the trade starts going against you.)
Never do overtrading.
Never let a profit run into a loss.
Don't enter a trade if you are unsure of the trend.
When in doubt, get out, and don't get in when in doubt.
Only trade active markets.
Distribute your risks equally among different markets.
Never limit your orders. Trade at the markets.
Extra monies from successful trades should be placed in a separate account.
Never trade to scalp a profit.
Never average a loss.
Never get out of the market because you have lost patience, or get in because you are anxiously waiting.
Avoid taking small profits and large losses.
Never cancel a stop loss after you have placed it.
Avoid getting in and out of the market too soon.
Be willing to make money from both sides of the market.
Never buy or sell just because the price is low or high.
Never hedge a losing position.
Never change your position without a good reason.
Avoid trading after long periods of success or failure.
Don't try to guess tops or bottoms.
Don't follow a blind man's advice.
Avoid getting in wrong and out wrong; or getting in right and out wrong. This is making a double mistake.
When you lose don't blame it on luck.

Risk Disclaimer

While due care has been taken in preparing the Analysis, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on it.
The Calls made herein are for informational purpose and are not recommendations to any person to buy or sell any securities. The above calls are based on the theory of technical analysis. The author does not accept any liability for the use of this column. Readers of this column those who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are solely responsible for their actions. The author may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column.

All disputes are subject matter of surendranagar jurisdiction.